XRP’s November record looks strong at first glance. Across 13 years of data, the token has gained an average of +80.2% in November. The median November return is -10%, though, and the median is the better guide to what a typical November brings.
The difference between those two figures matters this year. XRP lost 15.7% in October and enters November at the least predictable stretch of its calendar.
Most of the average comes from two years
Two outliers carry the +80.2% figure. In November 2013 XRP jumped +531.9%, and in November 2024 it climbed +281.7%. Mix those two with 11 ordinary years and the resulting average fits almost none of them.
XRP finished November with a loss in most cycles, which is what the -10% median reflects. The fourth quarter is already down -16.3%, and so far that only covers October. The average hides the asset’s seasonal habit of correcting, and this drop matches it.
The median isn’t perfect either. Thirteen data points make a small sample, and the market looks different now. Spot XRP ETFs went live in the US in mid-November 2025, opening an institutional demand channel the token lacked in previous cycles. That means earlier Novembers could be a poor predictor this time, whether the move is up or down.
Price action already points lower
As October closes, the chart supports the gloomier view. XRP has slipped under its $1.30 support line and is changing hands at roughly $1.25 to $1.26, which puts it in a local downtrend.
The upward push driven by investor expectations has run out of steam, and that gives short-term traders room to lock in profits. October’s decline followed a 48% rise in the third quarter, XRP's strongest Q3 in four years. Some of the selling now looks like profit-taking after that rally, so seasonality explains only part of it.
Ripple unlocks one billion XRP on November 1
Ripple’s escrow wallets are set to release 1 billion XRP on Sunday, November 1. The figure sounds large, but the release is routine: it has run every month on the same schedule since 2017.
Ripple usually puts 600 million to 800 million XRP back into new escrow contracts, so circulating supply grows by something nearer 200 million to 400 million XRP.
With liquidity this thin, even that reduced amount could weigh on price. It arrives during macroeconomic pressure and after a recent wave of forced long liquidations worth more than $1.29 billion, triggered by a security incident at the Binance exchange.
A short squeeze could still limit the downside
Those liquidations flushed out some of the excess leverage too. If funding rates stay negative and open interest stays low, a short squeeze could put a ceiling on the bearish case. In that scenario, a retest of $1.30 to $1.32 becomes more likely than the seasonal numbers imply.
Holders should keep their eyes on $1.30. The +80.2% average is a poor basis for any plan.