With a 48.1% gain, XRP has just wrapped up its best third quarter since 2022. The calendar, however, suggests October could test holders’ patience.
As the crypto market moves into the fourth quarter, Ripple’s “North Star” faces a contradiction. Traders are counting on “Uptober,” the seasonal rally that is supposed to lift every major coin together. XRP’s historical record and its current chart suggest otherwise, and a strong finish to Q3 may not save the bulls from a long pause this month.
October’s record is poor
October has historically been the weakest month of the year for XRP, with an average return of -5.14% and a median of -2.97%.
This isn’t a one-time result. In past cycles, including 2024 and 2025, XRP has consistently ended October in the red. The numbers don’t support anyone expecting an instant breakout just because the month has changed.
A strong Q4 average masks a slow opening
On the surface, the fourth quarter looks very promising, with XRP averaging a +133.3% return.
The median shows something else. It sits at -8.00%, below zero, because liquidity has historically tended to arrive late in the quarter. November leads with a median return of +80.2%, and December follows with a solid +63.1%. Capital has usually flowed in during late autumn rather than at the start of the quarter.
September’s rally left some problems behind
Heavy capital inflows into U.S. spot ETFs drove much of the momentum. XRP closed at $1.54, wiping out all of its first-half losses and printing a bullish signal on the weekly chart.
How quickly the price rose, though, pushed the market into locally overbought territory. Much of September’s gain came from a short squeeze, in which short positions were forcibly closed, rather than from steady buying. Moves like that can leave the bulls stuck in consolidation.
Leverage in the futures market is now excessive. For the uptrend to continue in a healthy way, the price needs a technical pullback and a retest of support between $1.30 and $1.40. October is an ideal window for that reset.
What comes next
XRP is on the edge of a strong bull cycle, but technical conditions rule out a sharp acceleration at the start of the quarter. The most likely outcome for October is a prolonged sideways trend or a moderate correction.
For traders, the $1.30 to $1.40 zone is the key level to watch this month. If history is any guide, the real test begins in November.
This article is provided for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Crypto markets are volatile, so always do your own research before making any investment decisions.