Play-to-earn is on its way back, according to Kieran Warwick, and he credits AI. Warwick co-founded Illuvium, the creature-collecting web3 series. In a lengthy post on X, he wrote: “I cannot believe I’m saying this, but Play-to-Earn is going to make a comeback.” He argues that developers can now use AI tools to put together a simple game in a week, which makes high-emission P2E games with short lifespans worth releasing again.
He used to argue the opposite. In the previous cycle, Warwick described himself as one of P2E’s biggest opponents, called the model unsustainable and a Ponzi, and admits those comments landed him in trouble. His opinion of the economics is the same today. What has changed is how much these games cost to make, and he thinks that change makes room for something “a lot of people are going to hate.”
What players should expect, according to Warwick
The recipe he lays out has three parts: extremely high emissions, a farm with a game built around it, and easy access through mobile or a browser. Eventually the yield runs dry and the players move on. By that point, the developer could already be halfway through building the next title.
“Suddenly, a game with a seven-day lifespan can be worth building,” he wrote. “That’s the part I think changes everything.”
He predicts a return of headlines about players in the Philippines making more from games than from their regular jobs. He also says the word “playing” will be stretched a long way, because plenty of users will put in money and time, track the yield and choose when to get out. “There will be almost zero loyalty to most of these games,” he wrote. If a developer only spent a week on the game, he says, that might not matter.
Warwick doesn’t present this as risk-free. “Again, I’m not saying everyone participating is going to make money. Plenty of people will lose,” he wrote. He likens the trend to sports betting and prediction markets: “If you don’t like gambling, you’re probably going to hate what I’m describing.” Because crypto is permissionless, he says, someone will build these games if the money is big enough, whether or not other people approve.
From DeFi Summer to a seven-day game
He links the idea to DeFi Summer, when projects handed out token incentives to pull in liquidity. Warwick still considers that a useful idea, though he points out that a product’s intended purpose and the market it ends up serving can be far apart. Builders figured out how to crank emissions to extremes, aware that big yields might only hold for days, hours or minutes. Users rushed in regardless, posting APY screenshots and hunting for the latest farm. The contest was about getting in first and leaving at the right time.
His summary: “Gambling with a drop of skill.” In his view, crypto already had its game. What comes next is putting a real game around it.
Five years ago, even a basic playable P2E game needed real time and money. Spending a year building something whose earning rush might only last a week was hard to justify, even if that week drew hundreds of thousands of players. Teams responded by trying to make their economies last, scheduling emissions and building long-term token demand. Warwick cites Axie Infinity AXS $1.03 ▼ -2.8% (official site) as an example: SLP issuance gradually outran the amount being burned, so the team reduced rewards to rebalance the economy.
He says AI changes that calculation. A developer who knocks out a simple game in a week hasn’t put years into the IP and isn’t very attached to it. If the launch pulls in enough attention, users and money, a short life is fine.
To show how quickly simple games can grow, he cites Roblox. A 16-year-old built the first version of Grow a Garden in a few days. Splitting Point Studios acquired it later, and in late June 2025 it reached 21.6 million concurrent players, beating Fortnite’s previous record of 15.2 million. According to Warwick, the game reportedly earned 12 million USD in one month, and thousands of Roblox creators already plan, build and test their games with AI tools.
Why he sees an upside for Illuvium
Warwick concedes that long-time Illuvium ILV $3.35 ▼ -3.8% (official site) backers may not like this take, since the studio has spent years building through the downturn. “But I actually think this will be GOOD for Illuvium,” he wrote.
He points out that just two months ago, many people were declaring crypto gaming dead. If a handful of new P2E games catch on and players start earning, he thinks gaming will be back on the timeline fast, and established gaming tokens could gain as capital flows back into the sector. He also hopes that some players drawn in by quick, yield-focused games will discover deeper titles such as Illuvium. “We still have to turn that attention into people who stay,” he added.
Illuvium’s current position
Illuvium is a group of linked web3 games centered on Illuvials, collectible creatures that players catch, level up and bring into combat. Illuvium: Arena is a competitive auto battler, while The Overworld is an open-world MMO where players explore and gather Illuvials.
Things have been tough for the studio. In August 2026, Warwick said the team had agreed to another round of wage cuts so its runway would stretch beyond 12 months. At that point the protocol was bringing in less than 10,000 USD a month, and the remaining staff were working almost entirely on the Overworld MMO.
Development on the games is still going:
- Illuvium: Arena v1.18.8 went live on October 7 alongside the Abyssal Chasm Event Pass, which runs until October 27.
- The Illuvium Challengers Series #2 is underway, and its finals take place on October 25.
- Nominations for five Illuvium Main Council seats close on October 27, and voting runs from October 27 to 31. Warwick won a council seat in the previous Epoch 11 election.
He closed his post with a forecast for the coming months: “I think this gets stupidly hot again. And much faster than people expect.”