Bitcoin ETFs shed $484.9 million in a single session on Wednesday, their roughest day since June 25. In effect, one trading day wiped out around 81% of the capital that had come in over the prior nine sessions. Two weeks of steady accumulation vanished by the closing bell.
IBIT and FBTC absorbed the heaviest losses
BlackRock’s IBIT topped the outflow chart at $207.7 million, with Fidelity’s FBTC next in line at $105.1 million.
Perspective matters, though. The funds still hold $57.8 billion in cumulative net inflows, so Wednesday reads more like a rough session than a mass exit.
Macro, not crypto, drove the damage
Crypto itself had little to do with it. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 5.7% on Wednesday, a level last seen in 2002. Brent crude finished near $100 a barrel, and equities pulled back from record highs.
Meanwhile, attacks on ships around the Strait of Hormuz keep mounting — at least one per day since Oct. 2. Every incident gives oil another reason to stay costly.
From there the math turns uncomfortable. Pricier oil stokes inflation, inflation keeps the Federal Reserve hawkish, and a hawkish Fed holds bond yields elevated. That is a hostile backdrop for an asset with no yield of its own — especially with the 10-year Treasury paying above 5% and not shedding 6% within days. Institutions run that comparison constantly, and their conclusions move markets.
Officials hint at another hike, traders remain skeptical
The Fed delivered its first rate increase since 2023 in September, and minutes from the latest meeting — published Wednesday — indicate most policymakers expect one more before the year is out.
Markets aren’t convinced. CME pricing currently implies a 19.4% chance of an October hike, while prediction market Myriad puts the odds at 17%.
Leveraged longs bore the brunt
In Thursday trading, Bitcoin slid as low as $81,749.83, roughly 6% underneath the $86,978 peak from earlier in the week. Derivatives traders felt it hardest: about $429 million in positions were wiped out over 24 hours, and long bets made up 87.5% of them.
Uptober’s winning streak stays broken
October had been green for Bitcoin six years running until last year's 3.69% dip. This time, the funds kicked off the month with $321.6 million of inflows across four sessions. They now sit $163.3 million underwater — and with Halloween still 23 days off, there is plenty of runway for things to turn scarier.
The Fed’s next meetings are set for Oct. 27-28 and Dec. 8-9. The September minutes offered no timing for the next increase.