After topping out at $126,251 in 2025, Bitcoin has since lost more than half its value. Even so, one of Wall Street’s most recognizable macro strategists now argues the numbers point toward $300,000 by 2029.
The forecast comes from Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, and appears in his most recent technical report. Timmer contends that Bitcoin’s local bearish trend is over and that the asset is positioned for long-term growth. Rather than relying on headlines or market sentiment, he builds his case on a model.
The $60,000 support that didn’t break
A single price level anchors the whole forecast. Timmer describes $60,000 as a critical “line in the sand.”
Bitcoin’s local lows came in between $57,742 and $60,033, carving out a classic double bottom on the weekly chart, the major reversal pattern that institutional investors are tracking. As Timmer sees it, the market’s defense of that zone shows selling pressure is easing.
According to him, holding that support fully confirms the strength of the Power Law model and clears a path toward fresh all-time highs.
He also points to a second signal. On the weekly chart, the stochastic indicators Fast %D and Slow %D have already moved up out of oversold territory. Timmer interprets this as evidence that large-scale buying is back, supported by long-term mathematical trends.
How the Power Law model works
The model underpinning the $300,000 target prices Bitcoin using logarithmic linear progression along with a 52-week Z-score of its ratio to gold. Its core premise is that current price swings are not random noise but regular cycles.
That premise carries much of the argument. Past drawdowns of 56% and 63% sit comfortably inside the path the model lays out. By that same reasoning, the most recent decline of more than 50% from the 2025 high is not a break from the trend but a piece of it.
Anyone who has followed Bitcoin through several cycles will recognize the pattern. It is also the sort of model that tends to look neatest after the fact, something worth remembering before circling 2029 on the calendar.
A nearer checkpoint at $82,500
A closer obstacle stands between Bitcoin and $300,000. Resistance lies in the $82,000 to $86,000 band, and the price is hovering near the double bottom’s neckline at $82,266.
Analysts reckon that a decisive break above $82,500 would spark a technical move toward the psychological $100,000 level. On Wall Street, such a breakout would mark the close of the capital accumulation phase.
That is the piece that can be verified soon. The 2029 target will take years to confirm or refute; the $82,500 threshold will not.
The caveats Fidelity includes
As usual, Fidelity adds its standard warnings: Bitcoin is still highly volatile, and past performance offers no guarantee of future returns. Given the asset’s aggressive nature, strict diversification is advised.
Timmer maintains that Bitcoin’s trend obeys strict mathematical principles rather than the panic of retail investors. For those considering his view, the $60,000 floor is the first thing to watch, and the $82,500 breakout the second. A model that says the floor matters is only as reliable as that floor.